Sunday Night Baseball Rangers vs. Orioles:
The reigning AL and World Series champions have not enjoyed their time in Baltimore against the potential AL champs for this season. The Rangers will need an upset victory tonight to avoid a four-game sweep and a seventh straight loss, as the Orioles, who recently moved into first place in the AL East, look to showcase themselves in front of a national TV audience on Sunday Night Basbeall.
How to Watch Rangers vs. Orioles
Where: ESPN
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When: Sunday June 30, 7:10 p.m. ET
Rangers vs. Orioles MLB Odds
Texas Rangers +130 // Baltimore Orioles -155
Total: 9 (-110/-110)
Rangers vs. Orioles Game Preview
The Rangers have gone down by one-run margins each of the last two nights after getting blown out 11-2 in the series lid lifter on Thursday. Texas is winless on the six-game road trip thus far and will enjoy an off day tomorrow before heading back home to entertain the Padres. This season has not gone as intended for the 2023 champs, as they sit nine games back in the AL West and got dealt another potential blow yesterday after star Corey Seager left the game following a hit-by-pitch.
The Orioles are having the season that they expected for the most part, as they enter play on Sunday with the second-best record in the AL by win percentage and the most wins with 53. They’re also second in MLB in run differential, trailing only the Dodgers. The O’s and their absurd crop of young talent lead the league in run scoring and are looking for their third winning streak of at least five games for this season.
Baltimore’s main area of need is starting pitching, which may be evident tonight with Cole Irvin on the hill. Irvin has a solid 3.74 ERA, but he has a 4.97 xERA, as his batted ball data and low strikeout rate don’t jive with that Statcast metric. He avoids walks and doesn’t put himself at any unnecessary risk, but life as a pitch-to-contact guy can be subject to a lot of variance. He found that out the hard way in his last start against the Guardians with eight runs on 10 hits over four innings. Only four of the runs were earned, but he has now allowed 17 runs in his last three starts.
The Rangers will turn to Andrew Heaney, who comes in with a 4.17 ERA, 4.35 xERA, and a 4.20 FIP over 77.2 innings of work. He’s dealing with a velocity decrease this season and has allowed 12 homers in his 15 starts and one relief outing, with just four Quality Starts (6+ IP, 3 or fewer ER) in those 15 outings. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in his last six appearances, but every start seems like a battle.
We’ll see if Heaney’s luck runs out on the road here. He has a 4.98 ERA in 34.1 innings at home, but has allowed a .221/.277/.405 slash with a .298 wOBA. On the road, he’s allowed a .285/.337/.436 slash and a .337 wOBA, but has a 3.53 ERA over 43.1 innings of work. His numbers are objectively better at home, but he has a 62.1% LOB% compared to a 78.1% LOB% on the road.
One saving grace for the slumping Rangers tonight could be that four of Baltimore’s primary relievers have worked back-to-back days, as Craig Kimbrel, Yennier Cano, Jacob Webb, and Cionel Perez have all been called upon the last two nights. Kimbrel is actually on a 3-in-4 and Perez has worked four of six games this week.
The Rangers have been losing, so they haven’t needed to rely on their primary guys. If Heaney can go toe-to-toe with Irvin, it could provide for a late-inning advantage.
Rain could delay the start, though, and that could have both teams thinking about tomorrow a little bit, as nobody wants to be at the ballpark late on getaway day. The O’s have a long trek to Seattle and the Rangers badly need a day off. I think that makes this one tricky to bet.
If you can stomach the vig, I think Rangers 1st 5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-154) is the best option on the board.
Pick: Rangers 1st 5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-154)
Rangers vs. Orioles Player Props
Marcus Semien Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120)
Semien has been outstanding against left-handed pitching this season with a .310/.367/.520 slash and a .383 wOBA. He’s hit four homers in that split and draws a southpaw tonight in Irvin. In fact, Irvin has allowed a .304/.340/.494 slash with a .359 wOBA to righties over 254 plate appearances, a big reason why his xERA is about a run higher than his actual ERA. I’d expect Semien to have a nice game tonight and that high SLG gives me some confidence in his total bases prop.
